“Beware the Ides of March.“(Soothsayer, Act 1 Scene 2)
Julius Caesar – William Shakespeare
“Beware the Ides of March” is a famous phrase from William Shakespeare’s play “Julius Caesar,” uttered by a soothsayer warning Caesar of his impending doom. The term “Ides of March” refers to the 15th of March in the Roman calendar, a day historically associated with significant events and decisions. This phrase has become a popular saying, often used to caution someone of impending danger or to evoke a sense of foreboding linked to that date.
For those of us who monitor violent extremism and domestic terrorism, it is the month of April rather than March that we approach with trepidation and concern. April holds significance for some extremists due to several historical events and beliefs associated with their ideologies.
On February 28, 1993, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) attempted to execute a search warrant at the compound of the Branch Davidian religious sect located in Waco, Texas. The raid resulted in a shootout, during which four ATF agents and six Branch Davidians were killed. Following the failed raid, the FBI took over the operation, leading to a lengthy standoff. On April 19, 1993, the standoff ended tragically and violently when the FBI initiated a tear gas assault on the compound to force the Branch Davidians out. A fire broke out within the compound, leading to a massive blaze that engulfed the buildings. Seventy-six people died in the blaze, with only nine cult members surviving. This tragedy inflamed the right-wing extremist movement and was viewed as an example of Federal government overreach.
The Waco siege has been cited as one of the primary drivers behind the rise of the militia movement in the mid-1990s and inspired one of the most notorious acts of domestic terrorism in United States history, the Oklahoma City bombing, which occurred on April 19, 1995. This domestic terrorist attack, carried out by Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols, targeted the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building, resulting in 168 deaths and hundreds of injuries. McVeigh was motivated by anti-government sentiments and a desire to retaliate against what he perceived as government overreach, specifically regarding the siege in Waco and a prior standoff between Federal agents and an extremist in Ruby Ridge, Idaho.
April 20th is the birthday of Adolf Hitler, the leader of Nazi Germany, who is idolized by some right-wing extremist, white supremacist, and neo-Nazi groups. These groups view April as a symbolic month for mobilizing and carrying out actions to advance their agendas. They may choose this time to hold rallies, protests, or other activities aimed at promoting their anti-government, anti-immigrant, or white supremacist ideologies.
It is also believed that these events served as motivating factors for the most notorious school shooting, the April 20, 1999, attack at Columbine High School in Littleton, Colorado. In writing discovered after the attack, the killers bragged about exceeding the number of casualties in the Oklahoma City bombing and originally planned their attack for its anniversary. One of the killers boasted on video about inflicting “the most deaths in U.S. history.” Investigators also recovered writings from the killers referencing Hitler’s birthday as a consideration for selecting the date of the attack.
Implications for target selection and timing
Ideologically based groups pose a particular challenge for threat managers. Analysis of a broad spectrum of prior attacks reveals these groups select targets that align with their ideological beliefs. Research regarding prior attacks also reveals that the more extreme the beliefs of a group are, the more likely they are to engage in lethal or mass casualty attacks.
The risk to organizations by ideologically based extremist groups is growing and becoming more diverse. In response to law enforcement action, anti-government/anti-authority groups such as the Proud Boys and affiliated organizations have now shifted their focus to attacking public and private efforts to promote diversity and inclusion. Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) efforts by organizations may be targeted by such groups. Organizations and corporate leaders taking a public position on social or political issues of the day may also find themselves targeted by ideologically based groups. Several organizations have already faced significant backlash related to the Israel/Hamas War.
We have previously reported on the threat to organizations by extremist groups adopting an Accelerationist ideology. These groups have been responsible for targeted attacks on critical infrastructure, particularly focusing on the energy sector, and remain a persistent and acute threat to infrastructure.
Considerations for Threat Managers and Threat Management Teams
When assessing threats posed by individuals not linked to an ideologically based group, it is also important to consider the significance of dates. In these cases, the dates may be significant only to the individual; therefore, it is important for threat managers and threat management teams to thoroughly consider the perspective of the individual in any assessment. Threat managers should conduct diligent reviews of public-facing social media and other resources to determine if there are any dates of particular significance to the individual in question. The dates associated with any pending grievance this individual may have are of particular concern and should be thoroughly investigated. In conclusion, threat managers and threat assessment teams should be mindful of upcoming events, anniversaries, and other dates of significance. Threat managers should be aware that the month of April holds a significant historical and symbolic weight for extremist groups, marked by tragic events and ideologies that have left lasting impacts on society. As threat managers continue to navigate the evolving landscape of violent extremism and domestic terrorism, it’s crucial to remain vigilant and consider the significance of dates, ideologies, and individual grievances in assessing potential threats. By understanding and addressing these factors, we can work towards mitigating the risks posed by ideologically motivated violence and promoting a safer workplace.
