September 2024
As we approach the final phase of the 2024 election cycle, our nation is faced with an unprecedented level of threat from political violence. The two recent assassination attempts targeting former President Trump underscored the severity of this threat. While organizations themselves may not be the direct targets of political violence, the ripple effects from such incidents pose a unique and ongoing threat.
Although threats to presidential candidates dominate headlines, the danger of political violence extends across all levels of government – federal, state, and local. In fact, locally elected officials in once obscure positions such as library boards, school boards, election commissions, and county commissions have seen the sharpest rise in threats. This threat extends to employees and volunteers like poll workers, census takers and other previously politically anonymous figures. Here are some figures that illustrate the scope of the problem:
- According to the U.S. Capitol Police there has been a 300 % increase in threats to members of Congress over the last seven years. Last year the Capitol Police investigated over 8,000 threats to members of Congress and their staffs.
- The FBI and the Postal Inspection Service are investigating suspicious mailings to election officials in at least 17 states. These mailings contained unidentified substances that led to building evacuations.
- According to the U.S. Marshals Service threats two federal judges, prosecutors, and judicial staff have increased by over 300% since 2016. No central database tracks threats to state court systems, but anecdotal information indicates a similar spike in threats to state judges and prosecutors.
Springfield, Ohio – A Cautionary Tale
Recent events in Springfield, Ohio exemplify the devastating impact that threats of violence can have on a community. Following the spread of debunked political rhetoric falsely claiming Haitian immigrants were eating cats and dogs, the town was flooded with anti-immigrant threats and hoax bomb threats. As a result, multiple city buildings including City Hall, two elementary schools, and a college campus had to be evacuated while hoax bomb threats were investigated. These hoax threats have significantly disrupted operations in the town and have stressed local emergency response resources to their limits. The governor of Ohio has deployed state police officers to assist in the response to multiple threats and hoaxes.
Questions to Consider
- If your organization had a facility in this area how would you react, respond, and recover?
- How would you ensure the safety of your work force and customers?
- Do your Continuity of Operations plans address such contingencies?
- How would you communicate with your workers following an evacuation?
Differing opinions on the severity of the threat of political violence
In a heavily quoted study, the PRRI 2023 American Values Survey, it was reported that nearly a quarter of Americans (23%) agree that “because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country,” up from 15% in 2021. Other researchers believe the risk of political violence to be overstated, citing multiple other polls and studies that find a strong majority of Americans feel exhausted by political divisions. These studies show 65% of Americans are concerned about extremists in both parties; and 86% of Americans think the greatest threat to the U.S. is coming from within.
However some researchers believe the risk of political violence is overstated. They point to other polls and studies showing the majority of Americans feel worn out by political divisions. According to a recent University of Chicago study, 65% of Americans expressed concern about extremists in both major parties, and 86% believes the greatest threat to the US comes from within.
Critics of these polls argue that vague definitions of political violence and poorly structured questions may skew results. Studies have also found that politically disengaged respondents are more likely to express support for political violence, further complicating the data.
Brendan Nyhan, a political scientist at Dartmouth College, suggests that the much more likely picture is that the vast majority of Americans upward of 95% reject political violence. A small minority say they supported, and even fewer would actually act on it.
Despite these reassurances, many experts who study political violence and civil unrest globally caution that the US is currently in a particularly dangerous period. They point out that early warning signs commonly seen in politically all countries are now merging in the United states.
Assassination Attempts – Facts and Myths
We have received several requests for analysis and commentary on the recent assassination attempts targeting former President Trump. However, it is not our practice comment on cases currently under active investigation. It is crucial that investigative agencies are given the time to conduct a thorough and complete investigation without speculation or conjecture.
Investigations into both of the assassination attempts are still pending. In addition to the criminal probes, multiple administrative investigations are under way to review agency responses the planning period we expect these investigations to provide significant lessons, and we will share our insights once they are complete.
While we await the conclusion of these investigations, we can share with you some data regarding prior assassination attempts that could inform your discussion of these events.
In 1997, the United States Secret Service published the Exceptional Case Study which was the first operational study of attempted and successful attacks and assassinations of prominent public officials. This landmark study focused on 83 individuals who participated in 74 specific incidents and is still the most comprehensive and authoritative study of assassins.
The authors of this study reached the following primary finding:
“An assassination attempt is the end result of a process of thinking and behavior. Many attackers move through life on a path that leads them to consider assassination of one or another prominent person of public status as an acceptable way to improve their situations or resolve their problems.”
Key findings from the U.S. Secret Service Exceptional Case Study
In their analysis the Secret Service observed the following common characteristics of assassins and would be assassins:
- These persons are often relatively bright and or well educated.
- They may appear to be socially isolated and often look, dress, and act in ways that do not readily distinguish them from others.
- They may have histories of harassing others.
- Some feel threatened by close contact with other people.
- Many hold on to grievances and resentments especially towards public officials and leaders.
- Many have histories of acting impulsively, angrily, or explosively.
- Many assailants have talked of suicide, threatened to kill themselves, or made a suicidal gesture or attempt.
- 1/3 of attackers developed interests in radical or militant groups in the years and months before their attacks but few become active members of any such group or organization.
- Many attackers have been evaluated by mental health professionals at some point and some have histories of inpatient psychiatric hospitalization. Few remained in mental health treatment for any significant period and maintained the capacity to plan and carry out organized activities.
- Attackers often consider more than one target, ultimately choosing a target for attack after concluding that an opportunity for attack exists and that an attack on the chosen target is likely to fulfill their goals.
- Some prospective assassins think about and plan for escaping after the attack. Others approached their assassination attempts with the expectation that they will be killed or for the purpose of being killed.
Recommendations
Monitor the news media and other public announcements for information regarding political events, protests or other significant activity in close proximity to your organization’s physical facilities.
Update and review crisis response policies plans and protocols such as:
- Bomb threat
- Fire
- Hazmat exposure
- Facility evacuation
- Civil unrest
- Natural disaster
Update and review physical security site surveys paying particular attention to the proximity of your facilities to other locations and entities that may be targeted for protests or violence such as:
- Polling places
- Political campaign offices and headquarters
- Locations and events featuring political candidates
- Governmental offices such as city halls and election offices
- Offices of federal, state, and local elected officials
- Libraries
- College campuses
- Social service agencies providing services to immigrants, voter registration, reproductive health, and other groups or causes that are politically charged.
In the wake of the two assassination attempts targeting former President Trump the U.S. Secret Service has come under withering criticism. The agency has been accused of a “lack of imagination” when assessing potential threats. We offer this guidance to our clients in the hopes of spurring imaginative planning for potential threats in the months ahead.
